Thoughts and observations for those investing on their own or contemplating doing it themselves.
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Saturday, February 26, 2011
Indexers are Human Too
Indexers can make this look robotic. Many have conquered the emotional side of investing. They are like the soldier running up Mt. Suribachi lobbing grenades as machine gun fire is raining down the side of the mountain. Are they superhuman investors? Don't they have emotions? How are indexers able to hang in and ride out the market turbulence?
I'm here to let out the secret. Yes, we have emotions. Yes, we get nervous when we hear tornado sirens go off. Yes, our minds try to play tricks with us. We are, in fact, human.
DIY Investor looks at today's market and cringes. The media is playing up many disaster scenarios. Brush fires are all over the place. What happens if the unrest in the Middle East spills over to Saudi Arabia? In fact, it appears that the Saudis are the key to us getting out of this alive. If they don't push up oil production closer to capacity, oil prices will spike further, pushing U.S. gasoline prices sharply higher and killing off the nascent U.S.economic recovery. Revolutions are nasty.
DIY Investor looks at the Middle East power struggles and is fearful for the simple reason that the U.S. isn't in control. It reminds him of late season drives by the Washington Redskins, who could only get into the playoffs with an improbable chain of events--requiring other teams winning and losing particular games. You could only sit there and wring your hands once your fate was out of your hands.
Then there are the budget fights with public unions taking place in a number of states--another contagion type development that has the potential to spread.
Add to this that the budget limit is close to being broached and that our politicians at the national level care more about vote getting, posturing, and playing to the cameras than taking courageous action that benefits the country.
All of of this and much more weighs on the minds of indexers as it does most investors. What, then, prevents the indexers from pitching all the cargo and jumping overboard?
First, indexers are probably a bit older than the average investor. In fact, I would like to see survey data on this, if anyone knows of some. It is hard not to get a sense of deja vu for those of a certain vintage. Secondly, indexers (even the younger ones) are knowledgeable about the history of markets. This is a real key. Take 9/11 as a fairly recent example. After the immediate horror sunk in, investors looked at markets and heard pundits proclaim people would never fly again. Expectations were rampant that further attacks would occur, and economic forecasters predicted disaster.
The S&P 500 hit a new peak six years later.
The recent example, of course, is the housing crisis of 2008. It looked as if the whole banking structure of the U.S. was going under. The potential for massive money market fund liquidations brought to mind the bank runs of the Great Depression. The bond rating agencies were exposed as incompetents and, to boot, it became unnervingly obvious that the top people at the Federal Reserve were clueless on the economic economic impact of the housing crisis. On March 9, 2009 the S&P 500 stood at 676.53; today it is at 1319.88.
Out of 26 investment management clients, I had 2 who totally "freaked out" (to use an up-to-date expression) and asked to put everything in money markets in early March 2009. They said that all the news was negative and they didn't see anything that could be positive for stocks. This, of course, is the best time to invest, as Buffett et al. have long argued.
The bottom line for indexers is that we have been through this before, we understand that emotions will be high, but, importantly we know that these situations offer opportunities. But, again, investors have to be allocated appropriately. It is important to understand the difference between the stage where an investor is accumulating assets and where assets are being drawn down. The investor building up the nest egg can confidently say that, from the perspective of several years down the road, this period will be seen as an opportunity to have added funds to the portfolio.
The bottom line is very simple. For most people, if they have an appropriate asset allocation and forget trying to time the market or pick stocks or even pick the sectors of the market that will provide the best performance, they will find they can control their emotions and be well positioned for calmer markets. Otherwise, IMHO, they shouldn't be in stocks at all. And that's OK.
Posted by Robert Wasilewski at 9:20 AM
Labels: DIY investing, Emotions
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There is always a crisis going on somewhere, always that wall of worry to climb. The twentieth century was filled with one crisis after another as will the twenty-first century.... yet the markets and economies keep moving higher in fits and starts. Life keeps getting better for mankind and whenever the news of the day starts to get to me down or make me nervous I think about the long-term trends and progress man has made.ReplyDelete
For those who were 'lucky enough' to have experienced some loss by trading individual securities during the lost decade, indexing makes a lot of sense!ReplyDelete
@The Grouch Think "...long term trends". That's the key.ReplyDelete
@MoneyCone Interesting way to put it in terms of being "lucky enough". You have to pay the tuition.
I don't think we've seen the shit really hit the fan yet as far as crises go, but ifit does, and if the markets plummet, just keep in mind that it will get better. If it doesn't, then it doesn't really matter anyways, but it's always gotten better since the birth of mankind, and over the long run, I believe it will continue to get better.ReplyDelete
@Invest It Wisely It is easy to see the negatives directly in front of us, not so easy to see the forces put into play to correct the situation. Oil is big business. There are powerful forces in play to correct the situation.ReplyDelete
It wouldn't surprise me if 20 years from now people look back to 2011 and say that was the year the Middle East joined the modern world. That was the year the oppressive regimes were overturned.
At one time the Middle East was the center of the world's culture, including mathematics. Imagine the possibilities.
I'm not saying it will be a smooth ride...still...
@Robert - great post, enjoyed this!ReplyDelete
@The Grouch - I really liked what you said.
"There is always a crisis going on somewhere, always that wall of worry to climb. The twentieth century was filled with one crisis after another as will the twenty-first century.... yet the markets and economies keep moving higher in fits and starts."
Life just keeps on going on doesn't it? :)