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Friday, September 24, 2021

Deja Vu?

 In the early 1990s the consensus view was that Japan was on the road to economically conquer the world. Then it ran smack dab into the leveraged real estate trap, the bubble exploded, and to this day still have not come back.  

Today global financial markets are fixated on China's Evergrande and its over leveraged real estate problems, with bankruptcy a real possibility. This throws a bit of a roadblock in front of the consensus view that China will be the pre-eminent economic power within a few decades.

Deja vu all over again? Yogi Berra.

Catching an eel


 I had to chuckle watching Fed Chairman Powell's post FOMC meeting press conference yesterday. The reporters never give up seeking to pin him down but he is much to slippery for that.

One example: He said a "good employment report" could get the taper under way. Well, what exactly is a "good employment report"? This reminds me of the committee's accepance of inflation running above target for some unspecified period of time.

By the way the Fed forecasts inflation of 2.2% for 2022. Two questions: How much over that level will they accept? Are they in la-la land?