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Monday, April 26, 2010

Investor Psychology

Where are investors in this cycle? Some think investors are moving out of the caution phase and the market has higher to go. Others think we are over the hump and in the area of indifference. For the negative view, take a look at Phillip Davis - Gives a pretty good overview of the bearish case.


  1. Boy, if I could only figure out where we were on that bell curve, I could start a market timing newsletter and make a bundle. ;-) I do think the market has gotten ahead of the economy, but it tends to be a leading indicator, most of the time.

  2. Good point. Actually if the market dropped or rose 20% from here over the next 3 months we could, as Taleb explains, construct perfectly logical narratives explaining either event.

  3. And either way you can look like a guru.