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Monday, March 7, 2011

Can You Forecast the Economy?

Everybody's got a view on the economy. But how accurate is it? It is great sport to make fun of economists and their  forecasts ( the old joke is God invented weather forecasters to make economists look good - DIY Investor knows - not very funny), but how would you do? Here's your chance to find out. Bloomberg columnist John Dorfman is now running his annual "Derby of Economic Forecasting" (DEFT) contest. 

There are six magnitudes to predict for year end:
1.Economic growth.
2.Inflation.
3.Interest rates.
4.Oil prices.
5.Retail sales.
6.Unemployment.
The contest has a March 15 deadline. Go for the trophy - Good Luck!

5 comments:

  1. Quite fascinating! I liked the line 'most guessed too low' for oil prices!

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  2. I know better than to even try.

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  3. @MoneyCone Oil prices difficult to predict this year too!
    @The Grouch Hey, you'd probably win!

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  4. No market timing from my side. Right now which way things go basically depends on if you see the glass as half-full or half-empty. ;)

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  5. D Waz said........

    Okay this one is easy Pops!!!!

    1.) Down 2.) Up 3.) Same 4.) Way, way UP!!! 5.) Down 6.) Up or stay same

    Now take that to the bank.

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