Investment Help

If you are seeking investment help, look at the video here on my services. If you are seeking a different approach to managing your assets, you have landed at the right spot. I am a fee-only advisor registered in the State of Maryland, charge less than half the going rate for investment management, and seek to teach individuals how to manage their own assets using low-cost indexed exchange traded funds. Please call or email me if interested in further details. My website is at http://www.rwinvestmentstrategies.com. If you are new to investing, take a look at the "DIY Investor Newbie" posts here by typing "newbie" in the search box above to the left. These take you through the basics of what you need to know in getting started on doing your own investing.

Sunday, January 8, 2017

A Good Year For Retirees

2016 was a good year for DIY investor retirees in the investment markets. For a basic asset allocation using low cost ETFs the results were approximately as follows:

Large Cap 35% = +11.80% SPY
Small Cap 10% = +19.89% SCHA
International 15% = +4.66% IXUS
Bonds 35% = +2.56% AGG
cash 5% = +0.1%

The total portfolio return approximated +7.77%.

The important point is that it exceeded 4% (the benchmark 4% drawdown rate for retirement) plus the rate of inflation (approximately 2%).

The bottom line is that the DIY investor retiree took his or her drawdown and had more than they started the year with and they are one year closer to the grim reaper. What more could one ask for?

There are some assumptions in here of course. If you invested with an investment advisor who charged 1 percent or more and who invested you in active Funds that follow the
"hokey-poket style" of jumping in and jumping out you likely did considerably less than the above results.

In fact, the above portfolio could have easily been set up on 1/1 and the DIY investor retiree set about enjoying his or her retirement to the fullest. Let the hair pulling over the UK leaving the EU and the Trump election with the barrage of analysis over the stream of tweets to others.

And, oh yes, the grim reaper part is no big deal either. Everyone is one year closer, retiree or not. It is just that many retirees know it and appreciate their time a bit more because of the fact.

Have a great and prosperous New Year and enjoy the ongoing 3 ring circus. As long as they don't get us into a nuclear war it should be pretty entertaining!

Friday, December 23, 2016

A New Year's Resolution

This resolution is for your mid sixties self. If you haven't met him or her there are aps out there whereby you can take a picture of yourself and age it. If you have problems saving then do it and meet your future self. It helps some people.

Now I know many people don't like to think about getting older. Get over it. I'm older and semi retired and it's great. Admittedly there are days where it is harder to get up in the morning and I get tired earlier in the evening. But balanced against this is the wisdom I've gained over the years ;) I don't do nearly as many stupid things as in my youth.

Anyways what about the resolution? It is simple. Save at least 15% of your paycheck towards your retirement. Not for a new pick up truck, not for an exotic vacation but towards your retirement. Have it taken out of your paycheck and learn to live on what is left.

Ok, so now you're protesting. You can't live the life style you are accustomed to if you are putting aside 15%. First off consider that for some (many?) of you it isn't 15% less income because you get a tax break if using a 401(k) or an IRA and secondly some of you have a company match. So, to get at the 15% isn't such a burden.

But if it is still a stretch take a hard look at your lifestyle. Think about functionality versus other motives for what you spend on. Is that car for getting from point A to point B or is it to send a message that you hope gets people to think you are making the big bucks.

Thorsten Veblen 

wrote a famous book, The Theory of the Leisure Class, in 1899 in which he introduced the concept of "conspicuous consumption". The idea was that people emulate the economic class above them. As such we buy many things not for their use but for the image they project. Consider that we buy silverware because it is similar to what the wealthy use not for its functionality.

Granted that Veblen may not be the easiest to relate to in today's world. Instead you may want to check out

  Money Mustache.

IMHO he is the best current writer on frugality and the early retirement movement. If he can't inspire you to live a more moderate life style then you are uninspirable.

Bottom line: Resolve to save at least 15% of income in 2017. Your future self will thank you!

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

I Apologize

I apologize to all those people over the past three years to whom I talked and tried to the best of my ability to get into the stock market. I wish I was more persuasive. We sat together at the table (or Skyped) and looked at the huge amount you had in Certificates of Deposit at .75% or  in  money markets at 0.1% and I pleaded for you to open an account at Schwab (or the discount broker of your choice) and choose a low  fee S&P 500 Index Fund for 60% of the assets.

I argued that the U.S. economy is the most innovative in the world, that products will be forthcoming that neither of us could foresee that would be in demand. We couldn't foresee Fitbits, or driverless trucks, or drones delivering packages. We couldn't foresee virtual reality. But all of it came and is coming big time.

You worried over government shutdowns, a slowing economy, the European Union breaking up and more recently Brexit and Trump. In your thinking you kept going back to the downturn in 2008 despite the fact that you had many years to recover if the market experienced a meltdown in the short run. To no avail I tried to emphasize that such a meltdown is a gift to the long term investor who is accumulating a nest egg for retirement.

The saving grace for me are the many who did invest for the first time and who gained the confidence and knowledge that  put them on the path they need to be on. They  held to a well defined asset allocation and have seen their assets appreciate significantly to return well above the rate of inflation. They learned to manage their own assets and avoid the egregious fees charged by the industry.

They are excellent examples of how straight forward it is to become do-it-yourself investors and participate fully in the free market capitalistic system.


Saturday, December 17, 2016

Are You Freaking Out About Bonds?

Interest rates are rising and do-it-yourself investors know that pushes bond prices down. The mainstream media loves this kind of story. Scaring investors is a whole genre within the financial reporting sphere. The reporting today anticipates the shock coming when investors check out their quarterly statements.

Well, actually (here's the news for the mainstream news) most investors, if interested, can go online and see their up-to-date results. Waiting for quarterly statements is last century for many investors, especially DIY investors.

So, what about bonds? Let's take the perspective of an investor, i.e. someone who  invests longer term.

The index most widely used to measure bond market performance is the

Barclay's (formerly Lehman) Aggregate Bond Index.

It is an intermediate bond index and is to the bond market what the S&P 500 is to the stock market. It tracks all investment grade bonds in the U.S. with a maturity of greater than one year (once a bond comes to within a year of maturity it is dropped from the index). Thus, the index includes U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds, Corporate issues, and U.S. Agency issues. It is the most widely used benchmark by professional bond managers to assess and report on their performance. As a point of reference, most surveys are reporting that professional, active bond managers are under performing the Aggregate Index this year.

So how has it done? The yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury Note has had a nasty back up from 2.22% at the beginning of the year to 2.60% as of Friday's close. So what has been the impact on performance? Shorter term the fear mongers are right. Over the past 3 months the Index has had a total return of -3.55%. But for the year-to-date the return is +1.62%! Pretty good compared to what people are getting on certificates of deposit and especially on money market fund.

In fairness, the return is not great compared to inflation. Still not something to freak out about. The yield on the index is 2.36% and this will be an important return determinant of the the longer term performance.

Most often investors capture this return by using the

AGG

exchange traded fund which has an expense ratio of .06%, i.e. 6 basis points.

Also, it is notable that, just as there are many way to play off the S&P 500 in the stock market, there are many ways to buy bond index funds that will perform differently than the Barclay's Aggregate Index. There are funds, for example that focus on different sectors and funds that have much different durations.

The above information as well as much more can be found by plugging the ticker symbol AGG into

Morningstar.

You'll note at the site that there is a "performance" link which provides up-to-date performance.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

A Great Gift

Recently I received a call from a young man seeking my advisory services. As an advisor my satisfaction comes from helping people get on a path to a successful retirement. This means steering them clear of high priced advisors who underperform, avoiding costly Funds that overcharge, and ensuring that the size of their nest egg will be sufficient to produce the income they need in retirement.

But this young man was a different case than I usually handle. He had just gotten out of prison on drug related charges and while in prison had read "Millionaire Teacher", which he found in the prison library, by Andrew Hallam. By reading the book he had come to understand how people build wealth by saving and investing intelligently. The book inspired him to do the same and he enlisted my services to get going. Full disclosure: I, along with a couple of other advisors, are mentioned in the book.

He related to me how his parents and entire family are poor but he had attained a job and was primed to start investing on a regular basis. To say the least this was one of my most satisfying consultations.

But the bottom line here is receiving the methodology. Admittedly, there are a number of books that describe how to invest in low cost Funds, allocate assets, and rebalance as needed. "Millionaire Teacher" is one and it is a good one. It is well written and can be read in a couple of weekends.

In my opinion it is a great life changing gift, especially for the young couple ( many of whom are financially illiterate) starting out in the professional work world. But many in mid-career find it useful as well.

So, I suggest instead of showing up with the soon to be consumed bottle of wine at the holiday party or putting a DVD of "Deadpool" under the tree consider "Millionaire Teacher".  It is an excellent choice for the budding DIY investor. As this blog and many others have harped on for a long time DIY investing done intelligently can save huge amounts and  increase the size of the nest egg over longer periods of time.

For additional background check out Andrew Hallam's website.




Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Can You Retire Early?

Here's a neat little chart from businessinsider "How close am I to early retirement"? Just find your income level and then the difference between your spending and saving. The answer as shown in the chart is how long it takes to build a next egg you can retire on by taking the magical 4%/year. Do this and you won't run out of money.

Simple? Yes, but useful as a general guide.

The problem is tricky as I've written several times on this blog. You've got inflation, market performance, how long you will live, medical costs and all sorts of unknowns. Some people take more comfort in getting complex analyses which produce Monte Carlo scenarios etc. To me simple is better. But it is very important to revisit the issue every couple of years at a minimum to see where you stand.

Some people target a number. For example they might have $1 million as the value of their nest egg at which they can retire. A problem here is that the number will be hit when the market is at a high point. I had a distraught individual who came to me after he had retired in 2000 and then went through the dot.com bust and had to go back to work. He then retired after the market hit a  record high in 2007 and then experienced the 2008 down 37% market. Needless to say he was at wit's end!

One way to approach this is to consider 4% of 80% of your portfolio. Can you have a nice retirement off of this? It may not be ideal but would it be ok? For example, if your nest egg is $1 million then 4% of 80% (.04 * $800,000) would be $32,000. If this would be ok (combined, of course, with Social Security etc.) then you could withstand a downturn in the market.

But back at the chart, what I really like is the out front emphasis on income and sending. The gap is what is key and it is important to not get lost in the weeds with all the other moving parts!

Saturday, November 12, 2016

What's Next?

Ok, so you've listened to Bogle and Buffett, you've read Bernstein and Malkiel. Now you want to get started investing in low cost index Funds. You've got numerous accounts: 401(k)s, IRAs, taxable accounts etc. You've got capital gains to think about and a host of questions on how to get going.

My suggestion is to find a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) you can work with. This is code for "who is an adherent of the low cost index Fund approach".  If you (1) have made trades and know what ticker symbols are etc., (2) can withstand volatility in your portfolio and (3) are willing to spend some time continuing to be educated on the investment process as it relates to creating a retirement
"nest egg", then you are likely a good candidate for hourly consultation or having the RIA invest for a short-term period to set the account up and then doing your own investing. From the start you save advisory fees of 1% to 2% as well as avoid high cost Funds that tend to underperform the market.

In my practice I do a session for $160. During the session we typically Skype and look at the investments, talk about goals, talk about how big the nest egg should be saved at various ages, how much should be saved, risk tolerance and Funds to be invested in. Sometimes we go over the process of rolling over 401(k)s, withdrawal strategies etc.

Many times this is enough to get the do-it-yourself investor headed in the right direction. Other times I manage assets for a short term period at a low rate of 0.4% per year. If for instance the account is $600,000, I charge $600 for the first 3 months. If at that point the client is ready to take over then that's it - no further charge. Typically, the client will schedule a session for $160 approximately 12 months later.

Some clients of course have me manage their assets on an ongoing basis. They have other things in their daily work life or even in retirement they would rather do than to be managing their assets.

Why an RIA? Good question. Because RIAs are fiduciaries and as such are required to tell you if they have conflicts of interest in regards to compensation. That is, do they get commissions from referring you to people or selling products? Many are like me and the only compensation they receive is what their clients pay them. This is the primary factor in determining that RIAs do what is in the clients' best interests!