Here's a March 2010, Business Monthly article, giving some background on my views on how people view markets:
More and more brain research is showing that there are mental illusions similar to the well known visual illusions. I am coming to believe that this is true in the investment markets. It appears that it is fairly easy to beat the market - walk into any bar and half the people there believe they could beat the market if they had money to invest- but in fact it is very difficult over the long run. This doesn't preclude the fact that there will of course be people that outperform but as has been frequently noted the percentage corresponds to what would be expected from the laws of probability. What it means is that the odds of picking a manager who outperforms over the long run is difficult.
Check out this link on illusions etc.
Happy March 9th anniversary.
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