tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8091367287813993533.post351967620421881384..comments2023-10-22T11:30:33.581-04:00Comments on Do-It-Yourself (DIY) Investor: "Adam Dunn's due"Robert Wasilewskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04536814650758511673noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8091367287813993533.post-20963240814269460922010-08-03T21:51:46.544-04:002010-08-03T21:51:46.544-04:00Gambler's fallacy indeed Robert! Just one of ...Gambler's fallacy indeed Robert! Just one of many human inquiry flaws :)My Own Advisorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16864437851943871224noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8091367287813993533.post-45154230411378135662010-08-02T23:45:18.430-04:002010-08-02T23:45:18.430-04:00I get that each flip of the coin is independent an...I get that each flip of the coin is independent and that the cumulative odds should be 50/50 heads/tails. Also, I am certainly a believer in index investing. Although I do wonder how investors can deal with the emotions of the roller coaster ride we have been experiencing. Knowing that a strategy is best and feeling that a strategy is best can be two different things entirely.<br /><br />I will Roshawn @ Watson Inchttp://www.roshawnwatson.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8091367287813993533.post-49229288641953535862010-08-02T14:54:21.793-04:002010-08-02T14:54:21.793-04:00Hi Kevin,
You are exactly right. They are thinking...Hi Kevin,<br />You are exactly right. They are thinking of reversion to the mean. It's just an important example of how difficult it is to assess the odds in different situations.<br />Thanks for the comment.<br />DIYRobert Wasilewskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04536814650758511673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8091367287813993533.post-76334597433850970842010-08-02T11:25:46.616-04:002010-08-02T11:25:46.616-04:00What gamblers are probably looking for is a "...What gamblers are probably looking for is a "reversion to the mean"; there is no such law of course, and each toss of the coin (or die) is independent, but over the long run, it statistically should approximate 50/50 odds.<br /><br />This is all moot, of course, since the house takes a cut out of each toss ;)Kevin@InvestItWiselyhttp://www.investitwisely.comnoreply@blogger.com